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Evidence: Misleading evidence. Studies of people claiming to have been abused by childhood sexual perpetrators show no evidence that anyone who says he was abused ever experienced anything harmful.

23 Jul 2015 20:24:49 +0000 is some evidence so strongly held in the media as "proof" that someone was abused? It's not proof of anything; it's simply convincing, though convincing when the media does it.

All of this has to do with what psychologists call "confirmation bias" -- we tend to find evidence that supports what we already believe, and ignore evidence that challenges our beliefs. In the world of journalism, this means the media will often report what they "want" to be true, and, well, they "want" to be true.

A case in point: the recent media coverage of the "Nader effect." Nader advocates running third-party candidates in U.S. elections, and in 1996 he supported Gary Hart's presidential campaign. Some of Hart's supporters became nervous about rumors of Hart's extramarital affairs, and (as they saw it) Nader's third-party candidacy helped those rumors spread, taking the election from the "left" to the "right."

One side of the media says Nader's campaign helped to win the election for the Republicans -- another says he helped to lose the election for the Democrats. Both sides of the debate say that Nader's campaign "confirmed" the stories of Hart's affairs. The media side says they are "confirming" that Nader's campaign was responsible.

What's wrong with this picture? It shows evidence (a loss of votes to the Democrats) that "confirms" a story (the rumors about Hart's affairs), but this evidence is not very strong. It's similar to throwing a rock at a glass window. The window breaks, and the stone crashes through it, but nothing much happens. The same goes for the effect of Nader's candidacy on the election -- he lost voters to the Democrats, but this effect was just a tiny bit.

Now, it could be that the stories about Hart's extramarital affairs are true -- maybe there were some, maybe there were none, maybe they all turned out to be true or false. (There's even an article published in The New York Times claiming to have found evidence that Hart had an affair with Donna Rice, Hart's former campaign manager.) But there's no way to find out, and the only 0b46394aab

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